Another week, a few more primaries and still a lot of candidates are left in the game. That seems to be the early story of the 2008 primary season.

In the Republican race for the presidential nomination, this week saw Gov. Mitt Romney win the Michigan primary and the Nevada caucuses, while Sen. John McCain narrowly won the South Carolina primary. On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton won the Nevada caucuses.

McCain defeated Gov. Mike Huckabee by 3 percentage points in South Carolina, even though the snow threatened voter turnout. The win bodes well for McCain’s hopes to gain the Republican nomination because every Republican nominee has won that state since 1980.

For Romney, the win in Michigan was his first primary win and made the Republican picture a lot fuzzier. In the first few weeks of the race, Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses, McCain won the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries and in addition to Michigan and Nevada, Romney had already won the Wyoming caucuses.

“The Republicans are truly undecided. Right now, there is no clear front runner in the race,” said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll.

Sen. Fred Thompson finished third in South Carolina, but is unsure if he will continue because much of his strategy was based on winning in the South. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani also continued his trend of poor showings, pinning his hopes on next week’s Florida primary. Rep. Ron Paul’s hard work paid off with a second place finish in Nevada. Congressman Duncan Hunter has dropped out of the race.

Although Clinton won the Nevada caucuses, all was not lost for Sen. Barack Obama. He picked up more delegates than Clinton (13 to 12) because of the areas that he won.

“Because the delegates are awarded proportionally, the delegate counts are going to keep these races alive at least until Super Tuesday,” Bacot said.

Clinton also won in Michigan this week, but her victory doesn’t mean too much because no delegates were awarded. Michigan moved their primary up and, as a result of trying to maintain control of the primary schedule, the Democratic Party took away Michigan’s delegates. Obama and Sen. John Edwards were not on the ballot in Michigan. This will occur again for the Democratic Party when the Florida primary is held next week.

While Clinton and Obama have been going back and forth, many have been wondering how long Edwards will hold on.

“A key to the Democratic race is how long Edwards can endure,” Bacot said. “He has not been knocked out yet because he has not had a poor showing. If his numbers stay at 15 to 20 percent, he would be pulling off of the other candidates.”

Nevada may have signaled the beginning of the end for Edwards as he received only 5 percent of the vote in the caucuses.

On Saturday, the Democratic primary will be held in South Carolina. The latest pre-primary polls show Obama ahead.

The big test for candidates in all parties comes on Feb. 5, the day known as Super Tuesday, in which 24 states will hold primaries or caucuses. Those states are Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucus), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Dem. only), Illinois, Kansas (Dem. only), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana (Rep. caucus), New Jersey, New Mexico (Dem. only), New York, North Dakota (caucus), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia (a Rep. convention for the state).

“Super Tuesday will serve as the writing on the wall for the third and fourth candidates in each party that their time is up soon,” Bacot said. “It will be a day of reckoning for those hanging on.”

Will Super Tuesday produce a true front runner in each party? Bacot doesn’t think so.

“The geographical dispersion of the states on Super Tuesday has caused candidates to try and claim regions as their own,” Bacot said. “Thus far nobody has been able to build any real momentum but it could be a significant game changer if one candidate is able to take a large share of those states.”

Even though no front runner on either side has emerged, if the early part of this primary season has taught any lesson, it is that everything can change on a dime for either party.

Reporter: RJ Kraft - 01/23/07